Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 29,953
2 Florida 27,001
3 Arizona 26,780
4 Mississippi 24,597
5 Alabama 22,508
6 New York 22,170
7 New Jersey 21,384
8 Georgia 21,161
9 South Carolina 20,912
10 Nevada 20,372
11 Texas 19,906
12 Rhode Island 19,532
13 Tennessee 19,445
14 District of Columbia 18,880
15 Massachusetts 17,999
16 Arkansas 17,723
17 Delaware 17,040
18 Iowa 16,862
19 Maryland 16,835
20 Illinois 16,714
21 California 16,210
22 Idaho 15,940
23 Nebraska 15,935
24 Utah 14,749
25 Connecticut 14,376
26 North Carolina 14,029
27 Virginia 12,686
28 Oklahoma 12,465
29 Indiana 12,447
30 Wisconsin 12,283
31 Kansas 12,230
32 South Dakota 11,804
33 Minnesota 11,721
34 North Dakota 11,529
35 Missouri 11,519
36 New Mexico 11,245
37 Michigan 10,366
38 Pennsylvania 10,177
39 Kentucky 9,461
40 Ohio 9,403
41 Washington 9,328
42 Colorado 9,320
43 Puerto Rico 8,677
44 Alaska 7,074
45 Wyoming 5,805
46 Oregon 5,615
47 Montana 5,489
48 New Hampshire 5,160
49 West Virginia 4,871
50 Hawaii 3,761
51 Maine 3,134
52 Vermont 2,451

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Texas 280
2 Nevada 227
3 Puerto Rico 210
4 Georgia 198
5 Tennessee 196
6 Alabama 189
7 Missouri 179
8 Louisiana 171
9 Arkansas 165
10 Mississippi 162
11 Idaho 161
12 Florida 159
13 California 156
14 Kansas 153
15 North Dakota 147
16 Illinois 139
17 Oklahoma 128
18 Hawaii 123
19 South Dakota 122
20 Iowa 120
21 Kentucky 118
22 South Carolina 115
23 Rhode Island 112
24 Wisconsin 112
25 Indiana 110
26 Arizona 103
27 Alaska 101
28 North Carolina 101
29 Nebraska 100
30 Virginia 98
31 Minnesota 97
32 Utah 90
33 Maryland 85
34 Washington 82
35 District of Columbia 78
36 Wyoming 76
37 Delaware 67
38 Ohio 64
39 Montana 63
40 Michigan 56
41 Oregon 52
42 West Virginia 50
43 Colorado 46
44 Pennsylvania 45
45 New Mexico 44
46 Massachusetts 41
47 Connecticut 33
48 New York 28
49 New Jersey 24
50 Maine 17
51 Vermont 11
52 New Hampshire 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,792
2 New York 1,667
3 Massachusetts 1,283
4 Connecticut 1,249
5 Louisiana 979
6 Rhode Island 966
7 District of Columbia 848
8 Mississippi 715
9 Michigan 661
10 Illinois 632
11 Arizona 623
12 Delaware 608
13 Maryland 603
14 Pennsylvania 590
15 Indiana 470
16 South Carolina 455
17 Florida 454
18 Georgia 441
19 Alabama 394
20 Texas 372
21 Nevada 357
22 New Mexico 344
23 Ohio 331
24 Colorado 330
25 Iowa 317
26 Minnesota 313
27 New Hampshire 311
28 California 291
29 Virginia 280
30 Washington 248
31 Missouri 240
32 North Carolina 231
33 Tennessee 206
34 Arkansas 205
35 Kentucky 192
36 Nebraska 191
37 Wisconsin 182
38 South Dakota 174
39 North Dakota 173
40 Oklahoma 172
41 Idaho 158
42 Kansas 142
43 Utah 116
44 Puerto Rico 108
45 Maine 94
46 Oregon 94
47 Vermont 92
48 West Virginia 91
49 Montana 78
50 Wyoming 58
51 Alaska 36
52 Hawaii 28

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 8
2 Florida 6
3 Mississippi 5
4 South Carolina 5
5 Texas 4
6 Georgia 3
7 Nevada 3
8 North Dakota 3
9 Tennessee 3
10 Alabama 2
11 Arkansas 2
12 California 2
13 Idaho 2
14 Iowa 2
15 Kentucky 2
16 Missouri 2
17 Oklahoma 2
18 Washington 2
19 Wyoming 2
20 Arizona 1
21 Illinois 1
22 Indiana 1
23 Kansas 1
24 Massachusetts 1
25 Minnesota 1
26 Nebraska 1
27 New Mexico 1
28 North Carolina 1
29 Ohio 1
30 Puerto Rico 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 Delaware 0
35 District of Columbia 0
36 Hawaii 0
37 Maine 0
38 Maryland 0
39 Michigan 0
40 Montana 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New Jersey 0
43 New York 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,642 1 99
Lafayette Florida 122,299 2 99
Lake Tennessee 114,738 3 99
Lee Arkansas 110,986 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 104,039 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 35,315 148 95
Richland South Carolina 22,773 404 87
Orange California 13,922 920 70
York South Carolina 13,695 945 69
Pierce Washington 7,548 1702 45

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,375 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,254 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,297 5 99
Richland South Carolina 428 648 79
Davidson Tennessee 333 841 73
Orange California 257 1049 66
Pierce Washington 176 1340 57
York South Carolina 114 1656 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons